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Daily Brief
What's happening in the markets today, in plain English
MIXED regime across 5 bundles. U.S. macro sentiment and trading flows are driving energy prices up and down, while supply risks from Iran and Russia take a back seat.. Top drivers — Hormuz Closure Risk Premium; Hormuz Blockade Tightens Supply
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VIEW 2
Physical Desk
Which shipping routes and supply hubs are disrupted today?
Supply chain at 9 active disruptions led by Kansas HRW Belt11 reroutes in flight
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VIEW 3
Hedger
How durable is today's regime, what tenor does that imply for the book, and what would invalidate the thesis?
CRITICAL regime · supply risk ELEVATED. 15 escalation triggers Simultaneous Black Sea wheat corridor collapse and US Corn Belt flash drought create multi-crop supply emergency
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VIEW 4
Sector Analyst
Which named companies benefit or suffer from today's regime, and where is near-term price action conflicting with the structural thesis?
Sector tape at ELEVATED supply risk. Macro BULLISH · tactical NEUTRAL. 20 active disruptions led by Ghawar / Saudi Arabia. Dual chokepoint seizure: Hormuz near-zero + Bab el-Mandeb zero removes ~27 mb/d nominal corridor capacity
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VIEW 5
Country Risk
Which countries are pressuring this bundle, through what mechanism, and what's the resolution path?

Bearish U.S. macro/biofuel vs bullish weather/softs; divergent bundle.

MIXED pressure · ROTATING regimeUnited States driving 50% of pressure

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VIEW 6
Macro & Futures
Where do today's signals point on each market?
BEARISH regime across 23 assets. Energy is decisively bearish (83%) while metals sit flat and equities drift neutral — a fragmented tape with no clear macro anchor.
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VIEW 7
Curve and Term Structure
Where is the front signaling against the fundamentals — and where is the curve about to catch up?
TIGHT (conf 72%) cross-bundle. US-Iran de-escalation has crashed energy flat prices while leaving backwardation intact, creating a rare divergence between price direction and curve structure that favours calendar spread longs across the energy complex. Top shifts: Soybeans backwardation steepened sharply to -$11.00 even as flat price collapsed, driven by long liquidation that has not resolved the underlying biofuel and export demand tension; Coffee backwardation held at -19.40 with a session slope change of -1.85, as the Minas Gerais frost risk continues to anchor front-month tightness despite a stronger dollar headwind. 14 assets reconciled · 5 relative trades on book.
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VIEW 8
Strategy Desk
What are this week's strongest trades and how is the book performing?
1 new picks across 1 bundles today (Equities 1). Top: SHORT TSLA (HIGH conviction). 11 open positions · -0.5% unrealized · 100 closed today.
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