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Daily Brief
What's happening in the markets today, in plain English
MIXED regime across 5 bundles. Geopolitical tensions are pushing natural gas and LNG prices higher while crude oil faces conflicting signals from weak global demand.. Top drivers — Israel-Iran Conflict Escalates; Hormuz Closure Tightens Supply. 10 active escalation triggers on the watch list.
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Physical Desk
Which shipping routes and supply hubs are disrupted today?
Supply chain at 6 active disruptions led by US Corn Belt — 4 reroutes in flight
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Hedger
How durable is today's regime, what tenor does that imply for the book, and what would invalidate the thesis?
ELEVATED regime · supply risk ELEVATED. 3 escalation triggers Global ag supply chains under severe stress: 16 nodes disrupted, 19 at-risk across corn/soy/wheat/coffee/cocoa corridors
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Sector Analyst
Which named companies benefit or suffer from today's regime, and where is near-term price action conflicting with the structural thesis?
Sector tape at ELEVATED supply risk. Macro BULLISH · tactical BULLISH. 6 active disruptions led by Strait of Hormuz. Strait of Hormuz closure enters 4th month with 21 mb/d disrupted, Qatar LNG force majeure extended through mid-June
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Country Risk
Which countries are pressuring this bundle, through what mechanism, and what's the resolution path?

Bullish with high conviction on Cocoa and Soybeans; Wheat and Corn are pulled along but face reversal risk.

BULLISH pressure · CONCENTRATED regime — United States driving 42% of pressure

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Macro & Futures
Where do today's signals point on each market?
BULLISH regime across 23 assets. Energy is decisively long (83% bullish) while industrial metals are rolling over (50% bearish with copper notably weak), a classic stagflation squeeze that keeps real rates pinned and growth expectations compressed.
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VIEW 7
Curve and Term Structure
Where is the front signaling against the fundamentals — and where is the curve about to catch up?
TIGHT (conf 82%) cross-bundle. Energy backwardation anchored by Strait of Hormuz disruption creates the cleanest structural trade across commodities. Top shifts: Gold contango widening as rising real yields pressure precious metals carry; Wheat contango tightening on Kansas drought concerns despite dollar weakness. 14 assets reconciled · 4 relative trades on book.
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VIEW 8
Strategy Desk
What are this week's strongest trades and how is the book performing?
41 new picks across 5 bundles today (Energy 10, Metals 7, Agriculture 8, Equities 6, Crypto 10). Top: LONG SLB (HIGH conviction). 16 open positions · -0.1% unrealized · 34 closed today.
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